The US economy is on solid footing right now. Economists at Bank of America expect it to stay that way through next year.
In a research note released to reporters on Monday, BofA’s economics team led by Claudio Irigoyen projected the US economy will grow at an annualized rate of 2.4% in 2025, higher than current forecasts for 2% growth, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus estimates.
This comes despite uncertainties surrounding the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump, including campaign promises of tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration, which economists have viewed as inflationary.
Higher rates, coupled with a hawkish tariff policy, would strengthen the US dollar and create spillover effects to global financial conditions, representing “a major shock, not only for the US economy but the rest of the world,” according to BofA.
But there’s one important caveat: The US is best prepared to weather any economic storm that follows Trump’s agenda.
“We like to say that the US imports a lot of stuff, but it doesn’t import recessions,” Aditya Bhave, senior US economist at Bank of America, told Yahoo Finance in a separate press briefing on Monday. “It only exports recessions.”
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