Bluebell Securities predicts robust growth for US and Asian stocks next year, with Thailand’s bond market shining bright as less aggressive rate cuts compared with other countries are expected to attract steady foreign capital inflows.
Chief executive Narisara Chaiwathana said the Thai bond market will remain attractive for investment next year, as the Bank of Thailand is expected to trim its policy rate in the first quarter.
Such a move would increase demand for bonds as investors seek to lock in high interest rate returns before rates fall in the next phase, said Ms Narisara. As a consequence, investment in long-term, high-quality bonds is likely to receive more interest from investors, she said.
“The stance of the Thai Monetary Policy Committee, which is relatively dovish compared with central banks in major economies, has attracted foreign capital inflows to the Thai bond market since the second half of this year, and should continue to surge in 2025,” said Ms Narisara.
Bluebell recommends investments in three- to five-year bonds for investors to lock in returns from interest rates in the long term. As the rate decreases, bond prices would increase, allowing investors to sell for profit in the future, she said.
For investments in equity, Bluebell suggests US and Asian equity funds, which are expected to provide good returns in 2025, backed by supportive macroeconomic factors.
Investors should allocate their investments to assets that suit the risk level they can accept, according to the securities firm.
According to Ms Narisara, the main supporting factor for investment in mutual funds, whether equity funds, bonds or other assets, is the likelihood of major central banks to cut rates, led by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The lower rates will help to reduce the financial costs of listed companies, increasing their profits amid a more stable economic recovery.
The US stock market could expand next year based on the growth of listed companies’ profits and strong artificial intelligence trends, even though the US economy has slowed slightly, she said.
Ms Narisara said many Asian countries still have strong economic fundamentals and are worth watching, such as India, South Korea and Vietnam.
China, despite pressure from expected US tariff hikes, is likely to start recovering as a result of the monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented by the Chinese central bank and government, she said.
Bluebell expects to report total income of 250 million baht, representing a growth rate of 95.5% from 2023, from operating as an intermediary in distributing quality bonds, mutual funds and other financial products.
The company has risen to fifth place among securities companies for bond sales volume, according to the Thai Bond Market Association, and is likely to maintain this ranking until the end of the year.
Bluebell aims for 13.5 billion baht in bond sales this year and 15 billion in 2025, with the company distributing bonds to 5-7 bond issuers on average each month.
In the first 10 months of 2024, the company’s assets under administration (AUA) amounted to 7 billion baht in terms of mutual funds, up 32% year-on-year. The figure is expected to increase by 50% for the whole year. In 2025, AUA is projected to reach 15 billion baht.
