Bangkok Post – Korean turmoil dents equity trading sentiment

RECAP: Most Asian equities fell on Friday as political turmoil in South Korea weighed on sentiment. But Chinese shares climbed to three-week highs as investors scooped up tech shares ahead of a policy meeting that will set new targets for the economy.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,421.18 and 1,457.71 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,451.96, up 1.7% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 41.84 billion baht.

Institutional investors were net buyers of 6.15 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 559.9 million, and foreign investors at 228.73 million. Retail investors were net sellers of 6.9 billion baht.

NEWSMAKERS: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy is “in remarkably good shape”, and labour market risks have receded. As a result, he said, the central bank can show some restraint with cutting interest rates. Traders now see a 77% chance of a 25-basis-points rate cut at the Fed meeting on Dec 17-18.

Bitcoin dropped 7% a day after an historic surge past $100,000 led some traders to hedge for a retreat. It fell as low as $92,144 yesterday before steadying at $97,851. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since the election of Donald Trump, amid expectations for a more crypto-friendly environment.
China has banned exports to the US of “dual-use items” with potential military applications such as gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials. The move comes after Washington launched a new crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto plans to go ahead with raising value-added tax to 12% from 11%, but mainly on luxury and imported goods, said a lawmaker.
General Motors said it expects to write down the value of its joint venture in China by up to $2.9 billion. It also anticipates another $2.7 billion in restructuring charges, including “plant closures and portfolio optimisation”. The move is a response to heavy competition that has forced automakers to cut prices.
President-elect Donald Trump vowed on Monday to block the $14.9-billion acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel of Japan. Unionised steelworkers, most of whom voted for Mr Trump, support the deal, saying it would protect jobs.
The People’s Bank of China has increased its support for the yuan after the managed currency weakened to a one-year low because of concerns about the impact of more US tariffs next year.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among those projecting cuts of 40 basis points to the People’s Bank of China’s main policy rate in 2025, the largest reduction in a calendar year since 2015, taking the seven-day reverse repo rate down to 1.1%.
Vietnamese authorities on Thursday ordered the Chinese online retailer Temu to suspend its local operations after it failed to meet an end-November deadline for business registration.
The US chip giant Nvidia signed a deal on Thursday to establish an AI centre in Ho Chi Minh City. The company has already invested over $250 million in Vietnam, said chairman and CEO Jensen Huang.
The wealth held by the world’s billionaires jumped by 17% over the past year, to $14 trillion from $12 trillion, according to UBS. The number of billionaires rose to 2,682 from 2,544 a year earlier as significant gains among the super rich in the US more than offset a decline in China.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has rejected a plan to hike value-added tax from 7% to as much as 15% after a public uproar. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira had floated a long-term plan to rebalance taxation by increasing consumption tax and reducing corporate and personal income taxes. This, he said, would strengthen state revenue, drive development, enhance competitiveness and address disparities.
The Ministry of Commerce predicts headline inflation next year will range between 0.3% and 1.3%, a slight increase from this year’s estimated range of 0.2% to 0.8%, attributed to an improving economy and rising diesel prices.
The influx of Chinese goods has significantly affected Thailand’s manufacturing growth and constrained loan expansion in the banking sector, Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said on Tuesday.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) will ask Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to delay a plan to increase the daily minimum wage to 400 baht on Jan 1, saying businesses are struggling to deal with the sluggish economy.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is drafting regulations to control the behaviour of major shareholders, aiming to prevent incidents similar to the one involving Dr Boon Vanasin. The founder and former chairman of SET-listed Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG) used his own shares as collateral for debt repayment. He has fled the country to escape fraud charges.
The media firm Mono Next Plc (MONO) said it was considering legal action against the SET, saying the latter’s comments about irregular trading caused unnecessary panic among investors and affected its share price.
The Office of the Insurance Commission (OIC) has ordered KWI Life Insurance to increase paid-up capital and refrain from accepting new clients until it meets the legally required capital level.
While Thailand’s real estate sector should remain stable next year, developers are upbeat about the possibility of easing loan-to-value (LTV) measures for mortgages to help the sector, particularly the middle-income segment, according to Pruksa Real Estate.

COMING UP: On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy rate meeting and China releases November trade figures. On Tuesday, Germany and Brazil report inflation and the US releases quarterly non-farm productivity. On Wednesday, the US reports November inflation, and the Canadian and Brazilian central banks hold policy meetings. On Thursday, the UK releases monthly GDP, and the European and Swiss central banks hold rate meetings. On Friday, India reports wholesale prices, and Germany and the US release trade figures.

Locally, Jitta Wealth Asset Management will hold a briefing on the 2025 investment outlook on Wednesday.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Tisco Securities recommends large-cap stocks expected to be targets for tax-deductible funds, such as AOT, CPALL, MINT and SCB. Also recommended are stocks whose profits next year are expected to outperform the market, with an upside of more than 20% from fundamental values, such as AP, GPSC and TU. Also watch for potential SET50 candidates in the first half of 2025, with COM7 the top pick.

Bualuang Securities sees Thailand as a world-class destination for medical and health health tourism with supportive government policies and a variety of visa options. It recommends BDMS and BH as hospital operators poised to benefit.

TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,430 points and resistance at 1,470. Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1,440 and resistance at 1,470.