Bitcoin topped US$100,000 for the first time on Dec 5, jumping drastically from roughly $69,000 the day before the US presidential election about a month earlier.
The sharp uptick in price has prompted investors, particularly cryptocurrency enthusiasts, to keep a close eye on what happens next in US politics.
As a candidate, Donald Trump pledged to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet”. Now the president-elect even suggested the country might one day pay off its national debt in cryptocurrency.
“During the campaign, Trump promised many policy changes in the US that will be favourable for Bitcoin and crypto assets in general. We have already seen the impact of this, driving Bitcoin prices to all-time highs,” said Nirun Fuwattananukul, chief executive of Gulf Binance, the Thai joint venture between the world’s largest crypto exchange and SET-listed Gulf Energy Development.
In Mr Nirun’s view, these policies are likely to be pushed through.
Trump’s second term, unlike his first, will have a Republican majority in the Senate and House of Representatives.
“This means he can drive his campaign policy very effectively. His campaign advisors, especially Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, are also very pro-Bitcoin, so I think these pledged policies will be implemented,” he told the Bangkok Post.
CRYPTO BOOST
Mr Nirun said before the US election, Bitcoin was already a well-known and widely adopted asset globally. In the US, many institutions and state pension funds are starting to invest in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
“New regulations, if they happen, will make Bitcoin even more mainstream. I believe Bitcoin will become a mainstream investment asset, similar to gold or silver, in the future,” he said.
Mr Nirun said the general cryptocurrency market will likely follow Bitcoin, with more assets becoming mainstream, taking the Ethereum path.
“I think the key driver will be greater innovation. With supportive US policy and more capital returning to the US, we will see more innovation in this space, with new applications and use cases driving crypto assets to become more mainstream in the future,” he said.
The market anticipates Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), leaving his post at the end of Joe Biden’s administration. Investors are optimistic about a more crypto-friendly regulator after his departure in early 2025.
“He was very active in regulatory enforcement on Bitcoin and crypto assets. The new SEC chairman will likely be much more aligned with Trump’s views,” said Mr Nirun.
Last Wednesday, Trump announced he intends to nominate cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to chair the SEC. Mr Atkins, the chief executive of Patomak Partners and a former SEC commissioner, has made the case against too much market regulation since he left the US stock market regulator.
However, realising the benefits of favourable crypto policies of the new US administration will take time, said Mr Nirun.
“I think we need to wait for the proper timing. There are a lot of pressing issues Americans expect Trump to tackle, including the economy and immigration, which will likely come first. We need to wait a bit to see when he will start looking into Bitcoin and crypto assets,” he said.
“The devil is in the details. Crypto is a complex issue and drafting a new law for this will take time.”
The FIT21 bill, a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, was previously passed by the House and is now waiting in the Senate.
“If Trump wants to redraft the entire bill, this will take even more time,” said Mr Nirun. “Hopefully the next SEC chairman is someone with a strategic vision for crypto in the long term.”
Binance co-founder Yi He shared a similar view, saying products such as spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds have broadened the industry’s circle, and these increasing overlaps and innovations indicate a good year is ahead.
STABLECOIN OPTIMISM
Jeremy Allaire, chief executive of Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, expressed optimism regarding global regulation of the sector.
He believes the next 10-12 months will be crucial for the stablecoin space, which has already grown to roughly $170 billion, with Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC responsible for the lion’s share.
However, this is a fraction of the global financial space and the $130-trillion global electronic money market. This means the stablecoin industry still has huge potential for growth, said Mr Allaire.
A type of cryptocurrency that aims to maintain a fixed value relative to another asset or currency, stablecoins are often pegged to a traditional currency, namely the US dollar or the euro, or other assets such as gold or silver.
“The next 12 months is a pretty big inflection point for stablecoins,” he said, with regulatory frameworks in some key jurisdictions expected to take shape over the next year.
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Mr Allaire likened these early days of digital currency to the early days of digital media, explaining how lowering communication costs spurred rapid growth and revolutionised industries.
He suggested achieving similar advancements in transaction costs with programmable money could fundamentally reshape the ways we transfer and manage value in the financial landscape.
USDC, Circle’s stablecoin, has increasingly been adopted across financial and payment networks, suggesting stablecoins are poised to become a foundational layer in the digital economy, with real-world applications expanding from here, said Mr Allaire.
In terms of regulation, he was cautiously optimistic, noting the regulatory environment in several countries had positive sentiment for stablecoins.
While a certain level of regulatory hurdles remains, a shift in attitudes among policymakers is taking place, particularly in the US, which is now recognising the long-term value that digital assets can bring, said Mr Allaire.
In fact, even those voicing public opposition to the sector or sitting on the sidelines are watching the vanguard, ready to follow suit with comprehensive regulations, he said.
This openness can pave the way for a balanced approach that supports innovation without stifling progress, said Mr Allaire.
REGULATORY COMPLIANCE
Ms Yi acknowledged the past year posed significant challenges, even for industry leaders such as Binance, to sustain growth momentum.
With more than 200 million users globally, the world’s largest crypto exchange remains focused on building a brighter future for the sector and increasing financial accessibility, she said.
Navigating industry-wide regulatory and compliance challenges is an ongoing priority for Binance. While such challenges are complex, Binance views them as necessary for long-term growth and trust within the ecosystem, said Ms Yi.
Collaboration with regulators is crucial to achieving mass adoption.
“If we want a billion users of crypto, we must cooperate with the regulators. That’s how we become the next Google or Amazon of crypto,” she said.
Access is essential to Binance, as Ms Yi hopes her grandmother or a nanny can easily open the Binance app and use crypto.
Noah Perlman, chief compliance officer of Binance, said as more of the world transitions from traditional finance to blockchain, global regulations and compliance is becoming more important than ever.
“We can all agree that 2023 was the year in which regulators and policymakers really stepped up their efforts to develop frameworks for the industry,” he said. “It is very difficult to follow the rules if they are constantly changing.”
Having regulations that are difficult to follow or deny product users what they want inevitably pushes users to unregulated spaces, said Mr Perlman, who has a background in traditional finance, adding regulatory frameworks offer certainty, which markets crave.
“As we get more certainty in the market through policies such as MiCA, it is going to encourage more people to enter the space,” he said, referring to the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation that came into force in June 2023.
Yuelin Li, chief product officer of tech startup Onfido, said a clear regulatory framework provides “a sense of safety for consumers”, which is the defining factor between those who are willing to give crypto a shot and those who prefer to stay within the realms of traditional finance.
Bora Erdamar, director of BlockchainIST Center, an R&D centre for blockchain technology, said the roles of project developers and experts help to bridge the gap between the crypto ecosystem and conventional finance.
“We need to make it easier to understand and use blockchain,” he said.
2025 TRENDS
Alex Svanevik, chief executive of leading on-chain analytics platform Nansen, believes 2025 will see the “biggest bull run in history”, supported by Trump’s victory in the US election.
For next year, meme coins — cryptocurrencies inspired by internet memes — will continue to attract retail investors to the crypto space. He anticipates these tokens will significantly boost on-chain metrics, leading to unprecedented records in decentralised exchange (DEX) volumes across multiple blockchain networks.
“Meme coins continue to onboard retail to crypto and smash on-chain metrics. We’ll see new records in DEX volume for lots of chains,” he said. “Better infrastructure, easier user experience, lower transaction fees — all these make the journey on-chain better for newcomers.”
Mr Svanevik also foresees a resurgence in decentralised finance (DeFi), driven by clearer regulations and the activation of revenue models within DeFi protocols.
With the departure of Mr Gensler from the SEC on Jan 20, he predicts regulatory hurdles will be reduced and institutional capital will flow more freely into DeFi platforms.
Mr Svanevik said he envisions cryptocurrencies playing a dual role in accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) projects and offering solutions to mitigate associated risks.
“Crypto accelerates AI, but also protects us from AI,” he said, adding crypto dollars should continue to pour into AI projects.
Binance chief executive Richard Teng said the future is bright for crypto.
“We are on the path of mass adoption because every major global financial institution is either embracing crypto or pushing ahead with the blockchain agenda,” he said.
