Bitcoin Above $100,000: What Next?

You can buy at the bottom of an asset’s range because no one else wants to. You can sell at the top because everyone wants to buy when it is the top of the market. When prices rise higher than what the text books say, more people want to buy so the upward trend continues and likewise when prices fall most people want to sell to avoid further pain. The trouble becomes when you hit the bottom, everyone who wants to sell has already sold, so the rare buyers sweep up the crumbs and any further buyers have to pay more. Likewise at the top everyone has bought and are singing how it’s going to the moon, only for the market to have run out of further buyers. As such a solitary seller will knock the price and pretty soon not only are there no more buyers but everyone starts sweating and looking to sell. The classic crash follows.

We are now approaching the top of crypto.

While some say there is no top to bitcoin, most would agree there is and where that top is, is now the key call. During the previous crash the bottom was the call. I called $13,000, but it was around $18,000.

Now we are at $100,000; what’s the call? Is this the top (probably not); is it $110,000-$120,000 (seems sensible); is it $150,000 (not impossible); $200,000, $500,000, $1,000,000 (good luck friend).

The thing to remember is the 5x is gone and we are now looking at +20%-+50%. While this is not a shoddy return, the drop from the top is probably 50% so we are now solidly in risk management territory.

The way to go at the bottom is to dollar cost average in and the way to get out is the same in reverse. Buy over time when you think the bottom is near and sell out over time when you think the top is in the vicinity.

That is my strategy and for me $100,000 is the gateway to the top. With a top you can leave early or leave late, either way the outcome is the same, but leave you must.

So what to do:

1. True believers will stay and simply not care if the price halves because in their creed it will 10x soon enough, so why bother trying to trade it when you can just hold and perhaps even buy more at the next bottom.

2. Investors who bought near the previous bottom will be looking for the exit and trying to define the top to maximize their profits.

3. Traders should look to the most explosive end of the market in chains like Solana and Base and track today’s crazy token to ride up the final leg of the bitcoin rally. They still have multiples in them but those will come and go in weeks or even days giving traders exactly what they live for, incredible volatility.

And finally…

4. For those that wake up at 3 a.m. to check the bitcoin price, they should sell down a bit every 3 a.m. they wake up until they can sleep.

Here is the chart:

And here is the projection:

You will see this projection in my many previous articles here going back a very long time indeed. Here is one from an article last December:

Not a bad call for a year out! Here is another from April of this year:

One from a month ago:

Of course I could be wrong, but it seems clear to me we are now dealing with percentages rather than multiples in the upside for bitcoin.

The mainstream is in process of FOMO-ing in and that is the signal to make plans for the exit.

Remember you have not won until you leave the casino with more than you came with, and bear in mind JP Morgan who said, ‘I made a fortune selling too early,’ and don’t forget when wracked with FOMO, there is always another bus coming.

Disclosure: I own bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.