BEIJING: China’s exports likely grew in November, slower than last month’s bumper data but continuing an upbeat trend as Chinese exporters likely frontloaded shipments amid growing tariff risks from the incoming US administration.
Outbound shipments are expected to have risen 8.5 per cent year-on-year by value in November, the median forecast of 22 economists in a Reuters poll showed, compared to a 12.7 per cent jump in October.
Imports likely grew marginally at 0.3 per cent, creeping back into the positive from a 2.3 per cent decline in October.
The forecast indicates another month of buoyant trade data scheduled for release on Tuesday, bucking broader slowdown in global demand.
Imports to China’s US$19-trillion economy likely rose on continued strong demand for chipmaking equipment prompted by US chip curbs.
Meanwhile, South Korea, a leading indicator of China’s imports, reported a fourth-straight month of slowing exports growth in November, hitting a 14-month low, as shipments to the US and China fell amid tariff uncertainty.
Economists expect Chinese exporters to have been frontloading shipments ahead of higher tariffs when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, as US manufacturers also frontload imports to mitigate expected cost pressures.
Trump warned of 10 per cent additional tariffs on Chinese goods, after already vowing to slap tariffs in excess of 60 per cent during his campaign.
But even before Trump won the election and swiftly staged his comeback with trade threats, analysts believed Chinese factories were slashing prices to attract orders, bracing for tariff risks from China’s largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, unresolved tensions with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3 per cent on China-made electric vehicles threatens to open a second front in Beijing’s trade war with the west.
