Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 23, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stocks rose and crude prices tumbled Monday as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Iran’s response to the U.S. attacks over the weekend was more restrained than expected.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 374.96 points, or 0.89%, ending at 42,581.78. The S&P 500 gained 0.96% and closed at 6,025.17, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.94% and settled at 19,630.97.
Iran’s armed forces said Monday they attacked an American base in Qatar after the U.S. hit Iranian nuclear sites in Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz over the weekend. The response, however, was intercepted by Qatar and no casualties were reported.
This led to a sell-off in oil as traders bet crude supply wouldn’t be materially disrupted by the ongoing conflict.
West Texas Intermediate futures dropped more than 7% to settle at $68.51 per barrel. Overnight, they hit their highest levels since January above $78.
Adding pressure to oil were comments by President Donald Trump. In a Truth Social post, he said that “everyone” should keep oil prices low, and doing otherwise would “play into the hands of the enemy.”
SPX intraday
“Markets only care about oil supply shocks, so as long as they stay at bay, we’ll see markets sharply higher,” said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial Group. “Regardless of whether the President oversold the effectiveness of the strikes or not, the nuclear program in Iran was set back decades.”
To be sure, Iran could target other U.S. bases or close the Strait of Hormuz, which would majorly disrupt global oil flows. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for the Chinese government to step in and prevent Iran from closing the key trade route. China remains Iran’s most important oil customer.
“While Iran has flirted with closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors aren’t terribly panicked about an oil market calamity, an equanimous view that’s appropriate at this point,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a Monday note. “Geopolitical risks are undoubtedly elevated in the Middle East right now, but our view remains that the extreme asymmetry of the conflict (with Iran’s military capabilities, and those of its proxy partners, significantly degraded), coupled with Tehran’s relative isolation (with few, if any, allies willing to come to its assistance) and ample global oil supplies, will help keep the fallout contained.”
